The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, has been on the rise but remains within expectations.

Although there was heavy speculation that this year’s inflation would spike due to impactful tariff policies, it has largely stayed within forecasts–enough for the Federal Reserve to introduce a 25 basis point rate cut.

It has been a relatively light week following the recent rate changes, as the Federal Reserve has felt the need to drop the current rate by 25 basis points. They have also mentioned the possibility of two additional rate cuts within this year. This follows the recent sharp criticism from the current administration, which condemned the Federal Reserve’s insistence on maintaining existing interest rates.

Both the CPI and PPI came in precisely within expectations. Under the current circumstances, there is now a very high probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate cut, a view widely shared by industry analysts. There is also a strong possibility of another cut to follow.

The release of major inflation data has once again arrived with the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, offering insight into the current state of the economy. Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve, there is considerable speculation that rate cuts may occur regardless of the trajectory of inflation.

With the release of the PCE Index, inflation has shown to still be creeping upwards but there is significant speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue with their interest rate cut in the future. Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment report has been growing pessimistic amidst the job market, which has been shown to be in a pattern of cooling down.

This is offset by the strong growth by the GDP estimates for the second quarter, as it was initially predicted the tariff changes would have a significant impact on the GDP estimates, but the impact has been less prominent than expected.