The CPI and PPI came in on schedule, and the results were warmer than expected, with the Producer Price Index showing an increase of 0.6% — nearly double the expected 0.3% rise. This is also reflected in the elevated, though expected, CPI reading of 0.6%. This is certainly being driven by increased fuel and energy costs.

This is further supported by U.S. Retail Sales showing an increase, though high gas prices and inflation are playing a major role in the rise in sales figures. As a result, the rate cuts the Federal Reserve had discussed in the past are now looking very unlikely to happen.

The inflation data scheduled for this week has been pushed back by one week. The unemployment data was the only impactful economic report released this week. Across the board, unemployment statistics came in within expectations, while wage increases were slightly below expectations. Historically, wages have lagged behind inflation, making both unemployment and wage growth strong barometers of the economy’s overall health. Despite the current state of affairs, the economy appears to be holding strong, as reflected across the broader markets.

The latest Trade Balance data has shown that despite the rigorous action involved with tariffs, it has had little impact on adjusting the trade balance amongst the US and other countries. The imbalance has gone the other direction — becoming worse — the last 3 releases alone.

A relatively light week given recent events, with the only notable releases being Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales. Consumer Sentiment has broken its recent downtrend, ticking up slightly. However, in the face of rising gas prices and increasing costs of living, this may shift in the next release. Retail Sales have also shown a positive uptick, indicating that the economy remains resilient despite ongoing global events.

With the full release of all the data for PPI and CPI–albeit delayed–we now have a clearer picture that the recent wars have pushed inflation to a three-year high.