With the FOMC Minutes coming precisely within expectations, there is once again a lot of optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut rates this year. Much of the Q2 data reports show favorable amounts of reduction in inflation as well as a more stable economic outlook for the rest of the year. With the larger reports in PMI Manufacturing numbers and Non-farm Payroll figures, the overall outlook seems to align with the rest of the data points, justifying the more recent optimism about potential rate cuts. This week should give the final results on Q2 inflation results with the new releases of CPI and PPI data reports.

Following the release of key data such as the FOMC rate decision and CPI and PPI inflation reports, only the PCE Index reports remained to set the course, which are coming in well within expectations. The Consumer Confidence Report is also a significant concern since it influences broader economic decisions when consumers hesitate to spend, usually due to rising living costs.

Currently, the Retail Sales Report is the sole report that has weight. With the passage of more optimistic inflation data reports, retail sales coming in slightly under expectations will have little to no bearing on the overall outlook. Given the last major reports indicating the economy’s health and state of inflation, there is more optimism toward a potential rate cut this year. Lending partners have still been quick to continue cutting rates.

A welcome and unexpected data release for both the PPI and CPI shows inflation expectations coming in lower than expected. The positive news was somewhat mitigated by the hawkish FOMC rate decision that also took place during the same week. Still, there is more optimism given that the data releases in the past 30 days have shown signs of inflation coming under control. At the very least, it suggests that the Federal Reserve’s policy to keep inflation under control has been effective. As a result, lending partners have quickly cut rates again after the meeting this week.

With the CPI and PPI reports coming up this week, the previous week was light on reports of any significance. Most notable was the Non-Farm Payrolls which can have an outsized impact on inflation data reporting, as it’s a useful barometer to compare the cost of goods to the payroll of the average consumer. Following that is the ISM Manufacturing Index which came in slightly under expectations. Lastly, the JOLTS Job Openings is a minor indicator, but useful for seeing the state of the job market.